With Andrew Luck going back to school, this pick is now down to three players: A.J. Green, Da'Quan Bowers and Nick Fairley. Mel Kiper (along with everyone else in the mock draft database) slated Fairley to the Panthers, while Sun Tan Man has Bowers has No. 1.

I can't agree with the latter. First of all, Bowers fills the lesser of the three needs between wide receiver, defensive tackle and defensive end. And second, Bowers is an athletic freak who posted great numbers this year, but he has some really bad tape and one has to wonder why he didn't produce in his first two years at Clemson.

Fairley satisfies the greatest need, and I think there's a much greater chance he's the No. 1 pick in the wake of his tremendous Co-National Championship performance (congrats, by the way, to Auburn and TCU for winning it all.)

Meanwhile, Green, in my opinion, is the best available talent. I believe he is the next of the elite receivers in the mold of Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Steve Smith is a rapidly declining player, so it's not like the Panthers don't need a wideout. We actually have an interesting thread about Green going first overall on the forum.

But is Green the consensus best player? Not according to my Consensus 2011 NFL Draft Big Board. The best player is a tie between Fairley and Patrick Peterson, and Peterson's not a possibility because the Panthers don't need a corner.

I think this pick will come down to the Combine and Pro Day workouts. You can really make a strong argument for both Green and Fairley, but the latter appears to have the edge right now based on how he dominated the Oregon and SEC offensive lines down the stretch.

As for the quarterback position, I believe the Panthers will sign Billy Volek, who will follow Ron Rivera to Carolina. Volek can start for a year until the Panthers find a long-term solution at quarterback because it's quite apparent that Jimmy Clausen is not the answer.

I made a huge mistake when I really underestimated how important it is not to be a loser in college. If you're a winner as a quarterback, it doesn't necessarily mean you'll succeed in the NFL. However, if you can't win, I think it says something about your attitude. And I'm not just referring to wins and losses. Clausen is not a leader; conversely, he seems to have this Matt Leinart-esque sense of entitlement.

Clausen just doesn't seem to have "it." Granted, he had no help from his teammates - malcontent Steve Smith dropped a ton of passes and the offensive line refused to block - but Clausen lost all confidence in himself and his body language was absolutely abysmal. Maybe he can get it together somewhere down the road, but he's not even close to being ready as an NFL starter.

The Broncos finished dead last in the NFL with just 23 sacks. That figure will rise next year with Elvis Dumervil back in the lineup, but Denver still needs another pass-rusher up front.

New head coach John Fox has a thing for athletic defensive ends. In his first year with the Panthers, he selected Julius Peppers at No. 2 overall in the 2002 NFL Draft. A couple of seasons ago, he traded a future first-round pick to draft Everette Brown.

With Denver presumably moving back to the 4-3, Fox will really consider Bowers with this pick, as Bowers will remind him of Peppers from a pure athletic standpoint. Bowers has some really bad tape, but Fox will look forward to coaching him up and getting the best out of him.

I have this feeling this pick is going to happen. The Bills are a franchise that has been floundering in mediocrity the past decade. They need a leader to seize control of the team and lead them to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Question Cam Newton's intelligence and pro-readiness all you want, but he's a tremendous leader.

Buffalo also has a fairly new regime that has not obtained "its guy" yet. Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey know that they'll never sniff the postseason if they don't have a franchise quarterback. And Newton has the mobility that Gailey covets for his offense.

Unfortunately, Newton's not ready for the NFL just yet. Sure, he'll use his scrambling ability to win some games, but he was a one-year starter in college who never had to make multiple reads in his offense. Newton has the potential to evolve into a very good NFL quarterback, but it'll take some time. Ideally, he'll sit behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year or two, but if he's chosen this high, he'll probably see the field right away.

Carson Palmer wants out of Cincinnati. Palmer reportedly is sick and tired of the circus atmosphere on the team. Can you blame him? I don't think it's a coincidence that Palmer had his best two games when both of his overrated clown receivers were out of the lineup.

Owner Mike Brown loves Palmer, so maybe he'll probably accommodate his quarterback's wishes by trading Chad Johnson Ochocinco Johnson. Brown already axed offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski, per Palmer's request.

If the Bengals trade Johnson - I seriously doubt he'll be back next season - this pick will be a no-brainer; A.J. Green is one of the top receiving prospects since Randy Moss.

Vince Young and Jeff Fisher stood side-by-side in Bud Adams office. Young, with a puzzled look on his face, looked at the senile owner and said, "It's either him or me, Mr. Adams." Fisher, with his arms crossed, nodded his head in agreement. Adams stared at his desk for a few minutes, forgetting what year it was and who these two men were. He finally snapped out of it and declared, "I choose me."

Some version of this went down at Titans headquarters. Both Young and Fisher are gone, so Tennessee now has to start all over again. If Blaine Gabbert is available, there's a very good chance that the Titans will take him to be their new franchise quarterback.

As mentioned earlier, Gabbert supposedly is the best quarterback available. For more on him, we have an interesting thread going about Blaine Gabbert on the forum.

The Redskins need a quarterback, but with Blaine Gabbert off the board, there is no signal-caller worth taking at No. 10. And no, Washington will not consider Cam Newton. He doesn't fit the offense, and Daniel Snyder may have an aversion to Auburn quarterbacks.

If Gabbert is unavailable, the Redskins will take the best player available because they have holes throughout their roster.

That includes the rush linebacker position. Washington made the switch to the 3-4 last season, but didn't consider the possibility that Andre Carter would fail miserably in the new scheme. Carter is a free agent, so the Redskins will be looking for an upgrade across from Brian Orakpo.

Speaking of Orakpo, he was the only Washington player to record more than 2.5 sacks in 2010. How pathetic is that? This defense desperately needs help.

Robert Quinn could be the answer. Quinn missed the 2010 season because the NCAA is ridiculously stupid, hypocritical and tyrannical. If he had played, he'd probably be a consensus top-five prospect, so Washington is getting major value with this selection.

St. Louis' No. 1 goal this offseason is to find a play-maker for Sam Bradford. The Rams could not get anything downfield in the ugly season finale at Seattle because of their abysmal receiving corps. Drafting Julio Jones would fix that.

Jones' downfall is the inconsistency with his hands, but he's an elite talent otherwise. He was great in the Auburn game, and has lifted his stock after a slow start. The fact that he played hurt only helps, as teams will love his toughness.

Keith Bulluck is a 34-year-old free agent. The Giants are in need of an upgrade at strongside linebacker.

Akeem Ayers reminds me a lot of Manny Lawson (which is a good thing for those who only like to look at stats). He's a really versatile player who figures to excel in Perry Fewell's defense.

The Eagles' most glaring weakness is the offensive line. They surrendered 52 sacks this year, including six in that weird Tuesday night game against the Vikings.

Derek Sherrod is perfect for Andy Reid's blocking scheme. He can take over for Winston Justice, who was benched in the playoff loss to Green Bay.

The Seahawks need some help with their atrocious pass defense, especially with Kelly Jennings heading for free agency this March.

Jimmy Smith is a player who's probably going to keep moving up in my 2011 NFL Mock Draft. His stock is rising right now, and if he impresses at the Combine, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he goes as high as No. 13 to Detroit.

Wow. I can't remember how many times I said "wow" while watching Titus Young practice at the Senior Bowl. Young has DeSean Jackson's game-breaking speed and lateral quickness. He's also a very good route runner. The only knock on him is that he's about 170 pounds, but Jackson has been a pretty good commodity for the Eagles despite being that size.

After watching the Ravens lose to the Steelers, it's pretty obvious that Joe Flacco and Ray Rice need a downfield threat to stretch the defense. By drafting Young, Baltimore will have its own version of Mike Wallace.

It's no secret that the Falcons need receiver help. With Tony Gonzalez regressing at an alarming rate, Matt Ryan's only viable option this season was Roddy White. Atlanta has to get its franchise quarterback some help.

General manager Thomas Dimitroff is all about finding players with great character and work ethic, which makes Torrey Smith a great fit for the Falcons. Smith is a high-effort guy who earned his degree in 2-and-a-half years. Oh, and he's pretty talented too

It never hurts to have as many quality pass-rushers as possible when you have to go through Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger every year to get to the Super Bowl.

The Jets will need to obtain a replacement for Shaun Ellis if he leaves as a free agent this offseason. Ellis had a monstrous game against the Patriots, so he could command a ton of money this offseason. The problem is that he turns 34 in June.

The Packers are a tough team to do mock draft for. They have very few needs, and the best players available don't necessarily satisfy those needs.

The one exception could be Anthony Castonzo. Yes, Green Bay drafted an offensive tackle a year ago, but the team needs a successor for Chad Clifton. Plus, Castonzo fits the blocking scheme and appearance that the Packers look for in their offensive linemen.