Citation (Oyé Sapapaya @ 01/11/2011 à 10:38)


Faut que je l'achète son bouquin (c'est la même journaliste que pour celui sur Bird & Magic)

Sinon pour ceux que ça intéresse, voici un article ESPN sur un point dont personne ne parle dans les négociations actuelles. C'est un peu long mais ça vaut le coup.
Citation
Two and through?
As the NBA CBA takes shape, voices are calling for an increase to draft age limit
In New York this Friday, NBA owners and representatives from the NBA Players Association are haggling over the terms of a new collective bargaining agreement. At the heart of the discussion are concepts that are pretty foreign to college basketball fans: Players and owners are haggling over how to split the profits, how free agency should be handled and whether owners should be taxed for spending too much.
At the periphery of the discussion, however, is something that could dramatically affect the state of the college game.
The NBA is pushing to change the eligibility rules for the NBA draft. Currently, draft prospects must be 19 years old and must be one year removed from high school to be eligible. Now the NBA is pushing for a minimum age limit of 20 and a two-year waiting period after a prospect's high school class graduates. And parties on both the NBA and NCAA sides view such a change as an entirely positive development.
Ideally, if NBA commissioner David Stern could get away with it, he would mirror the NFL's draft rules, push that age limit up to 21 and require players to be in college for a minimum of three years before declaring for the NBA. The players are pushing back on these attempts and have argued for having no restrictions on draft eligibility. But virtually everyone in the know believes the league likely will get at least some escalation of the entry age limit.
Precisely how this will affect the college game is an open question. As you read this, college basketball fans prepare to enjoy one of the most anticipated years in a decade -- thanks in large part to the decisions of Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones and Terrence Jones to spurn the siren call of the NBA for another year of school. If the NBA age limit is increased, then such a collective return of elite talent might soon be the norm, which would be a great boon for the popularity of the college game.
The counterpoint would be that it might make already messy recruiting races even more intense and prolong the campus stays of some players who have no interest in higher education. Couple that with the raised academic progress rate (APR) requirements and programs might become more prone to academic shortcomings that could force them out of the NCAA tournament.
How schools and players approach that issue, however, seems to be of little concern to the NBA … or to college coaches who, multiple NBA sources have told me, are pushing hard for a mandated second year for their star players.
Before examining more of the potential future implications, however, it's important to look back on the initial age restriction put in place before the 2006 draft and how that has played out.
The first age limit
When the NBA instituted its first age restriction prohibiting players from going straight from high school to the NBA, a number of GMs squawked. Talent is talent, scouts and GMs argued. College can help refine it, but the best players -- the transcendent players -- just have it, without or without college. And ever since Kevin Garnett sat in his high school gym and told the world he was skipping college for the NBA, fortunes and dynasties have been made on the backs of high school players who made the jump.
Recently, ESPN.com had 91 experts rank the Top 500 players in the game. The two players at the top of the list -- LeBron James and Dwight Howard -- never wore a college jersey. Neither did Kobe Bryant or Amare Stoudemire.
But increasingly, NBA GMs were reaching too far. For every LeBron, there was a Kwame Brown. For every Dwight Howard, a DeSagana Diop. For every KG, a Jonathan Bender. Mistakes were made. Many of them.
If the NBA's cellar dwellars were going to improve, they needed to cut down on the mistakes. ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh has noted that the blueprint for an NBA championship lies not with a high payroll but by hitting a home run on draft night. Making the right pick is paramount. Just as drafting LeBron immediately sent the Cavs from a lottery team to a contender, drafting Kwame over someone such as Pau Gasol doomed the long-term success of the Wizards. And so the NBA wanted to help protect its rebuilding franchises with high picks.
But was the presence of high school players in the draft really the reason teams were making mistakes? Savvy NBA teams knew poor drafting was more a function of bad scouting than a flaw in the system.
Having high school players in the draft pipeline actually gave an advantage to teams with good scouting staffs. High school players were seen by many old-school GMs as too risky. So historically, they've been undervalued as prospects, allowing teams with great staffs to get bargains later in the draft. Virtually all of the high school flops in the league were major overreaches on the part of less-sophisticated staffs that fell in love with a player after a stellar performance at an all-star game. They hadn't done their homework.
And at the time of the age limit change, progressive GMs noted that high school players were no riskier than a college player. In 2009, ESPN.com's Eric Neel belatedly proved them right in a study that showed that high school players drafted between 1996 and 2005 were actually the safest bets in the draft. Paradoxically, college seniors were, by far, the riskiest picks.
Still, the league saw little downside in implementing the restrictions. It felt that requiring players to spend at least one season in college increased the odds of a home run and decreased the odds of a strikeout. The more the prospects played in college, the more info the teams had to make the right decision, the NBA reasoned. As a side benefit, they were easier to market, as well.
"The thinking was that LeBron would still be LeBron in college," one league executive told Insider. "But guys like Kwame [Brown] would be exposed or would get the experience they need to succeed in the league."
Since the implementation of the age requirement, most NBA scouts and GMs have had a major change of heart. They are no longer fighting age restrictions. They're embracing them and enjoying the added protection.
GMs and scouts realized that they don't particularly like hanging out in high school gyms. Nor do they revel sticking their neck out for players who dominate AAU and McDonald's All-American games. It's easier to scout a player in a known system, against known players, in a known conference, they've found. Furthermore, a year or two in school seems to weed out the pretenders from the real thing.
"You can hide a high school player in a number of ways," one veteran NBA GM said. "The high school coaches, the agents, they could play a lot of games in an effort to hide a young guy's weakness. But in college, you can't hide. Mistakes are still made. But they're made because of bad scouting not because of a lack of information. The more you see a player play against known competition, the more information you have to make correct choices."
You can see the effect as recently as this past June, when Josh Selby, an elite-level recruit coming out of high school many had pegged as a high-caliber "one-and-done" candidate, plummeted on big boards over the course of a season at Kansas, ultimately sank to the second round and 49th overall. And he is far from the exception.
Samardo Samuels (No. 2 in ESPNU 2008 Top 100), B.J. Mullens (No. 5 ESPNU 2008 Top 100), JaMychal Green (No. 6 ESPNU 2008 Top 100), Scotty Hopson (No. 2008 in ESPNU 2008 Top 100), John Henson (No 6 ESPNU 2009 Top 100), Kenny Boynton Jr. (No. 9 ESPNU 2009 Top 100) and Will Barton (No. 8 in ESPNU 2010 Top 100) likely would all have been on NBA watch lists as they left high school. After a season in college, they all either dropped precipitously in their draft ranking or were altogether unable to declare at all after their freshman season.
Scouts and GMs also figured out that the rigors of going to school, traveling on the road and going through more structured practices prepared them for the realities of the NBA, a lifestyle that has plagued a number of former high school picks.
"High school kids came to the NBA with an attitude of … it's just a game. I just have to adjust to the talent," said one GM who has drafted multiple high school players. "But the NBA is a business. It's more than a game. Adjustments have to be made both on and off the court. So many players that came straight out of high school struggled to make that transition, and, truthfully, we weren't all that well equipped to help them."
The next steps
Both factors have done more than help GMs embrace the age limit -- now they want more of it. I spoke with a number of NBA GMs about the league's push to increase the age restrictions in the new CBA. A large majority of them were for it.
Yes, there have been a number of successful freshmen who have made the leap since the 2005 draft. Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose both played just one year of college ball and excelled almost immediately in the NBA.
But others haven't fared nearly as well. Tyrus Thomas, Anthony Randolph and Brandan Wright were all loaded with talent. But none of them was ready for the rigors of the NBA after one season of college. Desperate GMs will reach for potential every time. Once again, the NBA is trying to rewrite the rules in a way that protects those GMs from themselves. And college programs are apparently happy to help.
According to a number of sources on the NBA side of the conversation, college coaches are overwhelmingly in favor of a mandatory second year in college. It's a huge recruiting relief to know that the blue-chip prospect they pursued is with them for more than one season so they can develop more continuity.
It also gives college coaches more control over the players. They aren't forced to play freshmen right away. They have time with them; they can teach and even discipline without hurting the players' future pro prospects.
The NCAA is also interested in parity and feels that elite players will spread out more among the nation's programs because they don't want to be buried on the depth chart while another blue-chipper holds the starting job. In other words, a mandated second season in college probably would signal the end of the mega recruiting classes Kentucky has produced the past few years.
Finally, it's an easier product for the NCAA to sell. The NBA really passed its problem of marketing rookies on to the NCAA, which introduces the players to the nation via March Madness and a number of high-profile early-season tournaments. The NCAA markets its game more by school than by players, but, as we've seen this year, the college game can get more traction and generate more excitement when it has returning stars to show off.
There will inevitably be concern about players not wanting to be at school. However, the belief is that it's a bigger problem with the current one-year-required system. If players know they're out the door after a single season, they're more likely to have less regard for their actions. If players know they'll be required to return to campus for a sophomore season, eventually that will make them more committed to remaining eligible and investing themselves more in the university.
But the main parties involved in the rule-change discussion see those concerns as peripheral. The main emphasis is the on-court product in the NBA and, in turn, the NCAA. And whether the new collective bargaining agreement in the NBA requires college players to stay for two or three years of school -- the state of the college game and the NBA game on the court almost certainly would get even stronger.